Le Tour

Holy crap, the year has just flown by, and now it's time for cycling nirvana.  Three weeks of lycra goodness, with lots of drama, crashes, climbing, and did I mention drama?  It all starts on Saturday, and needless to say a lot of us will be glued to the TV, when we aren't checking our fantasy cycling team, of course ......

So what to look for in the Tour?  There are pretty much three big things -- there's the general classification fight, the sprinter's fight, and the search for stage wins.  I'll start with the GC, since that's most folks favorite.  This is a three week race, so to win the GC you have to be smart and strong, conserve time on your bad days, and kick the crap out of your competitors on your bad days.  And right now, no one does that better than Alberto Contador. 

Now look, we all know he's a prima donna.  He's so bad he makes Lance look likeable and relaxed.  He doesn't listen to his director, is impulsive, and has a relatively weak team this year.  But the fact is that he's the best climber in the world, and the second best time trialist.  Unless he falters, he is going to win.

Now if he does falter (like on the cobbles on Tuesday, which should be awesome all around) there are plenty of folks to go after him.  The top of that list includes Mai's favorites, the Schlecks.   

Frank and Andy are not only awesomly dorky, but they are also really improving their time trialing, and they will lay down in traffic for each other.  If one has a chance to beat Contador, the other will not even think about giving up their own chances to help.  Nobody else has that, and nobody else has a team as strong and well rounded as Saxo.  Fabi, Jens, Stewie, Matti, and Jacob give you strength in the flats, serious climbers, and probably the best tactical minds in the peleton.  Plus they have the Jens face, which is all you really need to dominate any race.

Another big pick this year is Ivan Basso, the great Italian hope.  He did great at the Giro de Italia, but the Giro is different than the Tour, and holding good form for that long is tough.  I think he's overrated and will falter pretty quickly in this race.  

Then there's Wiggo, the wanker who left Garmin after they were the only team to believe in him for greener, British pastures.  Wiggo's strong, but he's never come into a race with this much pressure, and he is the most tactically retarded rider in the peleton.  Look for him to lose big time in the first week of the race, before we even get to the mountains, and not be a real factor.

Captain Cuddles, Cadel Evans, is more interesting.  Wearing the most beautiful jersey in sport, he's had a good year, but he always seems to come up short in the big tours.  This year though, he's got Big George helping him out, so look for him to be in the top 5 throughout.

VDV is always a favorite of mine, even more so after the dude literally broke his back a month before the Tour last year, killed himself for Wiggo, and still finished 8th.  He alway gets stronger over the long race, but he just doesn't have that killer instinct.  Look for him to stay close and finish in the top 5, but never really be a threat to the podium




One guy who we all know has that killer instinct is Lance.  He's also old.  And kind of a douchebag.  He also has a built in excuse that he's doing it all for cancer research, so if he doesn't win it's no big deal.  When he was winning, there was absolutely nothing, or no one, that could get in his way.  I may not like the guy, but the only other athlete I've ever seen who was that competitive, and just refused to lose, was Michael Jordan.  Lance will try to stay close, but he just doesn't have the firepower in his legs.  He'll be a definite top 10, but I just dont' see him as a real threat this year.

All is not last for the Shack though, becuase someon I could see coming of age this time is Janez Brajkovic.  He won the Dauphne this year (over Contador), and is a guy who just seems to do everything well.  I'm kind of hoping Lance has a bad first day in the mountains, so he accepts he doesn't have it and throws everything behind this kid.  He's going to be around for a long time -- and I could totally seem him finishing in the top 5 if he's not Lance's super domestique all race.

My pick for the breakout star is Tony Martin though.  This guy is just a machine.  At the Tour of California we saw him just destroy himself on the Big Bear stage for Mick Rogers, and then come back and win the time trial on the next day.  He is super strong, but always has one bad day.  Andy Schleck had the same thing before, but then suddenly it clicked and it hasn't happened since.  Look for Tony to do that this year, and if he's close to the podium on the last time trial -- look out.

So those are the major contenders for you.  What are my picks?  You've got to go with Contador first, and I think it will be Andy 2 and Frank 3.  That being said, if Contador falters at all on the first cobbled stage, then Andy and Frank will decide who's strongest and put all their eggs in that basket.  If only one Schleck makes the podium, I think Tony Martin finishes 3rd.  After these guys, I think Cadel and VDV will be battling to round out the top 5.

So I've put it out there -- what do you guys think?  It's great to hear some smack talking, and trust me, there'll be plenty of it over the next three weeks.  Over the next few days I'll talk about the sprinters, and some of the must see days on the Tour this year, which I really, really hope I can see live with beer in hand. 

Comments

[mai]

As much as I hate to agree with you so publicly, I will have to this time. The only thing is that I think Lance might finish on the podium. He is, after all, Lance.

I'm sending Contador bad joojoo so he'll suffer. And then it's all Andy's (or Frank's.)

So excited. Nonetheless.